Globalisation has slowed from light speed to a snail's pace in the past decade for several reasons. The cost of moving goods has stopped falling.

Multinational firms have found that global sprawl burns money and that local rivals often eat them alive. Activity is shifting towards services, which are harder to sell across borders: scissors can be exported in 20ft-containers, but hair stylists cannot.

And Chinese manufacturing has become more self-reliant, so needs to import fewer parts. This is the fragile backdrop to Mr Trump's trade war.

Tariffs tend to get the most attention. If America ratchets up duties on China in March, as it has threatened, the average tariff rate on all American imports will rise to 3.4%, its highest for 40 years.

(Most firms plan to pass the cost on to customers.) Less glaring, but just as pernicious, is that rules of commerce are being rewritten around the world.

The principle that investors and firms should be treated equally regardless of their nationality is being ditched. Evidence for this is everywhere.


Geopolitical rivalry is gripping the tech industry, which accounts for about 20% of world stockmarkets. Rules on privacy, data and espionage are splintering.